Is SEO Dead?

‘By 2028 brands’ organic search traffic will decrease by 50% or more as consumers embrace generative AI-powered search’ This was reported by research firm Garner on December 14th 2023

Headlines like this are causing concern not only to businesses who rely on search traffic to get customers but also to people who rely on SEO as a career.

But are things as bad as they seem?

With AI, the DOJ case, and increasing competition from other search engines I wanted to roundup a lot of what has been said about the death of Google recently to answer 3 questions

• are less people using Google for search with the new AI tools out there?
• can you expect less clicks and traffic from Google because of their AI overviews and over widgets?
• and what does the DOJ anti-trust case result mean for the future of SEO and Google?
• Ok, so are less people coming to Google to search for stuff?
  • Gartner published 2 reports in 2024, stating that they believe search traffic will decline as much as 25% by 2026 and up to 50% by 2028 due to AI chatbots

• basically users are getting their answers from chat bots like chatgpt which dont send users to websites
• Given the gravity of these predictions I wanted to learn more about the assumptions
• I started with the 2026 report,
• Alex Kantrowitz a tech journalist of Big Technology actually spoke to the Gartner VP responsible for the report, Alan Antin who said it himself on a video call
• Alan mentioned the logic comes from Google losing the apple deal and Apple replacing any version of a search engine with a version of chatgpt, so those searches would never occur on a search engine
• when Alex specifically asked him about the 25% figure he said ‘internal debate’ which i thought was insane
• https://open.spotify.com/episode/2IKSBO4ISZDKZXeiV5TB74 (13:35)
• https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/search-engine-traffic-really-drop-25-2026-gartner-alex-kantrowitz-gakde/

• There was no model or data, just some swaggy math and a lively internal debate that made its way into a press release and labeled as ‘research’
• What about the 2028 prediction?
  • Well at least with this one they had some data though, i find it wild to make such a prediction on sample of 299 consumers

• Ian Howells, cofounder of SEO community traffic think tank nails it with his response, linking to some classic ‘misses’ from gartner

• And while I am picking on gartner here, they and many others out there are clearly trying to cash in with clickbait given the uncertainty in the SEO world
  • Well yes and no, let me show you what i found
  • In October 7, 2024 Rand Fishkin of SparkToro conducted his research roundup of his own (link)...
• you should watch his breakdown but the headline is
  • Google’s search marketshare is strong as it has ever been hovering around 89% of the market worldwide according to statista and datos two platforms that monitor user search data at scale
• He also looked at how often people are switching to use AI for their search needs and found 14.6 % in May 2023 that grew to 17.1% in August 2024, which suggest more people are switching, though the growth has slowed
• Datos also caught wind of the Gartner 25% headline and wanted to do an investigation of their own analyzing their search data which is derived from actual user behavior not intuition or internal debate
• The headline here is despite the rising popularity of AI-driven search tools Google's search traffic share has remained relatively stable, dropping only marginally from 91.5% to 90.7%.
• A really interesting finding was that users using search engines continue to have repeat visits while openai.com have initial interest than very little repeat visits
• It seems like the general public doesnt like using AI tools as search as reports (like the ones from Gartner)would have you think
• Speculating for a second, it makes sense for marketers and more tech minded folks to ‘think’ things are going in a direction because they use the tool themselves, but their market doesnt

Quoting datos referring to openai and chatgpt “the typical user will investigate the tool, try it a few times, then loses interest...”

But what I found really interesting about Rand’s analysis was those people who are using these AI tools are still using Google a lot... like 200x per month which is up from last year

So what is actually happening? What does the data say? It’s been 2 years since chatgpt launch in 2022, surely we’d see some serious changes user behavior?

• Ok, so we’ve established that Google is still holding steady as the leading global search engine, but can you expect less clicks from Google with the AI features?
  • Maybe, again like Gartner you have clickbait reports coming out from sources like emarketer suggesting 20-60% declines in search traffic from SGE

• And while its true ‘AI overviews’ can reduce clicks to your site for certain queries there are conflicting reports
  • Ross Hudgens reported in May 2024 that being featured in AIO increase CTR, so more clicks to websites

This is the ‘Ai Overviews’ box at the top of Google search results

• And then just 7 days later Kevin Indig reported that AIOs reduce CTR and clicks to your website

• Overall, the results are mixed and Google keeps changing these widgets literally everyday, as I record this video i’m seeing new blue links that cite the original source

• Then you have Google dropping features in June of 2024, like continuous scrolling
• It’s very likely the impact of something like this will be felt on the 2nd and 3rd page of Google
• https://searchengineland.com/google-dropping-continuous-scroll-in-search-results-443529

which are very different then the version Ross and Kevin reported on which looked more like this

• Compared to the old treatment with smaller favicons
• And even before that there werent any favicons
• Kirill an SEO at Gusto a payroll SaaS reported a 6.5% increase in CTR by making their favicon more visually engaging, so smart SEOs that are adapting are winning

But then Google is adding features that may increase clicks... for example Google added bigger favicons in the search results that look like this

Setting aside the AI overviews widget, its clear on the whole Google is adding more widgets, ads, and other experiances that are reducing CTR

Gary Nissim Founder of Indago Digital, reported that for the Australian market, the CTR from the top 3 positions are down roughly 27% comparing 2021 to 2024

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ctr-benchmark-reveal-up-31-drop-seo-traffic-2024-au-gary-nissim-ycthc/

• So in 2021 if you were getting 100 clicks you’re now getting 74 clicks for the same rankings
• Yes, that stinks but those 74 clicks are still extremely valuable high intent clicks that I as a business owner would want
• And when comparing to other platforms like facebook, reddit, tiktok, Google is still far and away the best platform to get traffic to your website, so its not like the investing in SEO would have been better somewhere else
• Citing yet another data study from Rand at SparkToro, on march 11th he published a study looking at the top traffic referrers on the internet

• in simple terms. despite the declines in CTR, if you want traffic to your site, Google is still the best, and its not even close
• Businesses who understand this and invest in SEO adapting to the changes will profit
• Ok, so we’ve established that Google’s market share is still strong and that Google is reducing the clicks it sends to website, but its still far and away the best place to get traffic to your website... what about losing Chrome and the Apple deal, will that kill Google?
  • This actually is a big point of uncertainty and something SEOs should keep tabs on
  • To get you up to speed, a 23 page report on filed on 11/20 by the DOJ with the U.S. District Court in Washington D.C
  • There’s a lot in the report but the highlights are
    • Google must sell Chrome browser
    • Google must share its data
      • duckduckgo and bing would very quickly have better products
    • Google can’t be the default search on apple devices or android, and must give users choice
      • Google paid Apple 20 billion in 2022

he looked at the top traffic referrers and found Google is still the #1 by a mile accounting for 72% of of all US web traffic referrals 14x larger than the next highest, which is Bing

• We have to wait until March to see the formal proposal, its likely many of the details will change between now and march
• For referance, MSFT took 5 years from the initial lawsuit 1998 - 2002 and ended due to a settlement, doesn't seem like Google is going to settle
• Even when march rolls around, assuming no settlement this whole thing will probably take us until the end of 2025 to see what Google will be required to do, but then they'll most likely appeal which will be about 12-18 months, so were looking at 2027, which is the soonest anything will be final and itll impact the SEO industry
• So where does this leave you right now?
  • Feel confident knowing any investment into SEO won’t be wasted because
    • 1) google isnt losing the share people say it is to these new AI tools and platforms, they are still holding strong at #1
    • 2) while there are less clicks coming out of Google due to more ads and widget placements, they are still 14x better than the next closest alternative
    • 3) even if Google were to be unseated, the work you do to optimize for Google translates nearly 1:1 for any other search engine like bing, perplexity, duckduck go it doesnt matter
  • You should continue to create great content, build quality links, and cultivate a strong brand because its these 3 things that will keep you competitive and get search engines to send you traffic regardless of the platform and whether they are ai generated responses or not.
  • SEO is one of the only compounding marketing channels in the world in that investment today continues to payback for years
  • Business who understand this and adapt will profit and I can guarantee they will continue to need SEO experts to guide them